Phase of weak La Niña for the coming months

It has been a drier than average winter across the Manning Great Lakes region, but that is about to change with a wetter than average summer predicted.

WeatherZone meteorologist Craig McIntosh predicts a phase of weak La Niña (increased rainfall) for the coming months as spring transitions into summer.

“We should see weather that is average to wetter than average towards the end of October and into November,” Mr McIntosh said.

There is always a chance of thunderstorms bringing intense rain of up to a months worth at once, but in general October will be drier that usual

Craig McIntosh

“November will be on the threshold of La Niña, but only just. This should continue into the new year, with the end of summer drying off and back to normal.”

Following a dry winter the wetter months would be welcome, as the conditions contributed to an early start to the bush fire season.

The windy hot weather was expected to ease towards the end of October, with more rainfall predicted and cooler weather to come with the rain. Although it is predicted to be a wetter summer than last year, it still won’t be a soaking summer. 

“There is always a chance of thunderstorms bringing intense rain of up to a month’s worth at once but, in general, October will be drier than usual, getting wetter into November,” Mr McIntosh said.

“There is no guarantee that this sort of rainfall will occur, but if it does it will be very welcome. The recent dry weather has completely dried out the soil.”

So far in October Wingham has only recorded 15.4mm of rain leaving a lot of catching up in the coming weeks before the usual October average of 73mm is reached.

Temperatures across the area are predicted to continue to be higher than average during the day, as well as at night. 

“There is a high chance of recording above average temperatures for the rest of the year,” Mr McIntosh said. 

“A neutral phase is likely to occur as we come into autumn, but it will not dry up as far as to enter an El Niño cycle.”